[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 07N12W ALONG
THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC TO 04N20W TO
02N30W TO 03N40W TO 04N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W...AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
THE S APPALACHIANS SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM NEAR 30N93W TO 25N95W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG ARE WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND THE TX/LA COASTS. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS TO
THE NW OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NW
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MAINE...DOWN THE EASTERN US COAST...AND SW OVER
THE GULF TO NEAR 23N94W. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AROUND THIS RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF AWAY FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT. LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N86W AND SE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TX
COAST WED MORNING AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NW OF
THE COLD FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF
JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W...SUPPORTING ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 19N75W TO 11N77W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS N OF 14N...INCLUDING HAITI AND EASTERN JAMAICA. A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ABOUT TO CROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. GENERALLY MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO NE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE SURFACE WIND
FIELD NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGHS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE MAIN
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY N. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF 75W N OF 15N
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW TO THE W OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 19N75W TO
11N77W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE FROM JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N72W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ONGOING
CONVECTION. THESE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITHIN 75 NM OF PORT-AU-PRINCE...WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM NEAR 21N70W TO AN UPPER LOW JUST
N OF JAMAICA WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N65W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO
28N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL N
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT SKIRTS THE EDGE OF OUR AREA
DISCUSSION ALONG 31N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N52W TO
29N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N59W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N29W TO 25N25W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
21W AND 27W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N70W AS THE TROUGH MOVES VERY
LITTLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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