[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N11W TO
06N26W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N
BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EPAC. AT
THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM
22N98W TO 30N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FRONT. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 23N87W TO 19N86W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS E OF THE FRONT MAINLY W OF 90W. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE TX COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MERGING WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE NW OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N77W. WITH THIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
14N AND BETWEEN 68W-77W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
S OF HAITI FROM 16N75W TO 13N77W ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 14N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH
AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT BETWEEN 68W-78W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE BASIN INCLUDING CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND
HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF HAITI NEAR 19N77W.
WITH THIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND PRIMARILY HAITI.
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. WEATHER STATIONS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE HAVE REPORTED UP TO 4.70 INCHES (120 MM) OF RAIN
SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THERE
ARE FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 27N68W TO 24N71W. SCATTERED LIGHT OT MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 60W-72W. TO
THE NE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N60W TO 31N50W. A
COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDING FROM
30N68W TO 31N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N12W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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