[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO
04N27W 02N29W AND 3N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 09N TO 17N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 13N TO
15N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 08N108W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 22N103W IN MEXICO...BEYOND SOUTH TEXAS. BROAD LARGE-
SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 88W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 92W EASTWARD.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W IN SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...TO 25N95W...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO...BEYOND 30N105W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NEAR 21N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/LIFR CONDITIONS...AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KGLS...
AND KXIH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AT KVBS THAT IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER...AND IN THE LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KVKY... KMIS

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N74W...TO A
19N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO EASTERN PANAMA...AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 63W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 31N63W TO 30N67W 26N70W...ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...ACROSS HAITI...TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTWARD...AND IN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...AND FROM
14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 21N73W 25N66W 28N54W BEYOND 32N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD TO
FLORIDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.89 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM THE TROUGH WESTWARD.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA...TOWARD 05N85W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 04N77W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.05 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...ACROSS HAITI...TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM
PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB AND AT 500 MB CONTINUES THE FORECAST
TREND OF THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...
ROUGHLY ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST AT 250 MB PUTS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB PUTS A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N/17N AND 78W/79W. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL AT 700
MB PUTS BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 16N SOUTHWARD AND FROM 75W
WESTWARD. EXPECT A STEADY STREAM OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT
700 MB FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N30W AND 07N34W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD FROM 50W
EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N21W 27N22W 25N21W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 10N21W 19N15W BEYOND 25N09W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N34W TO 25N44W TO 19N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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