[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES
THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO
04N20W 02N31W 08N46W AND 07N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AT THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 07N12W...AND FROM 01N TO
10N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W
AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 08N108W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 22N103W IN MEXICO...BEYOND SOUTH TEXAS. BROAD LARGE-
SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 88W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 92W EASTWARD.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N93W IN SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...TO 25N95W...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO...BEYOND 30N105W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NEAR 21N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/LIFR CONDITIONS...AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KGLS...
AND KXIH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AND AT KVBS THAT IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...AT KATP.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N74W...TO A
19N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO EASTERN PANAMA...AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 63W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N63W 26N67W...ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 80WWESTWARD...AND IN
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...AND FROM 14N NORTHWARD
FROM 80W WESTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
51W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.89 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM THE TROUGH WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 09N74W TO 06N77W IN COLOMBIA TO 03N80W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.05 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...AT 29/2300
UTC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AT 30/0000 UTC IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB AND AT 500 MB CONTINUES THE FORECAST
TREND OF THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...
ROUGHLY ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST AT 250 MB PUTS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB PUTS A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N/17N AND 78W/79W. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL AT 700
MB PUTS BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 16N SOUTHWARD AND FROM 75W
WESTWARD. EXPECT A STEADY STREAM OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT
700 MB FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N30W AND 07N34W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD FROM 50W
EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N27W 25N28W 20N29W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 10N22W 20N15W BEYOND 32N09W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N53W 19N58W...AND TO
13N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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