[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO 04N28W TO 05N43W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE WHOLE
BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO REACHING THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 22N98W TO
30N94W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA AND
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SHOWERS AND FOG POSSIBLE FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N80W
TO13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 77W. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS E OF 70W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT ISLANDS MAINLY N OF 17N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 14N69W TO 17N65W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
IT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 60W-70W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND WILL DRIFT WESTWARD WITH CONVECTION WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED
MILES E OF ITS AXIS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO THE W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N76W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THIS LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE W-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N69W TO 32N64W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTING
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 60W-75W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 26N27W TO
22N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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