[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N59W
TO 24N65W TO 20N73W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELL
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS
FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N16W TO
06N21W 06N25W...TO 04N34W AND 03N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO
08N BETWEEN 10N AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...
AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HURRICANE SANDRA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N92W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO
16N93W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 83W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...
ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST...SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE PRESENT IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 20N91W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 17N91W...TO GUATEMALA NEAR
15N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS
THAT ARE FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KBBF...KGLS...KEMK...KGHB...KVOA...KMIS...
AND KBVE.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N72W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 13N78W IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N55W 28N58W 27N60W. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N62W 23N65W AND 20N72W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM
20N72W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF JAMAICA...TO 17N83W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
30N63W 26N68W 24N75W. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS A SECOND SURGE OF
ENERGY INTO THE ALREADY-EXISTING LONGER WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
PRESENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
26/0200 UTC WERE SHOWING WIND SPEEDS TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE OR
NEAR GALE-FORCE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY-
SLOWER WIND SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N NORTHWARD...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
U.S.A. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 29N56W TO 25N57W
TO 24N59W TO 21N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 77W. IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
WESTWARD.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 15N NORTHWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 09N61W 07N67W IN VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 08N78W IN
EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 08N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT THE PRESENT TIME. HISPANIOLA IS IN AN AREA OF A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH...INCLUDING THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND A
SHEAR LINE...FROM NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA AND
BEYOND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 80W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 5000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...
IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CURRENTLY
IS MOVING THROUGH/ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH POSITION IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA COAST
ALONG 74W FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH POSITION WILL STAY THE SAME
FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH FOR 2 DAYS...GIVING IT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N73W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. THE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR DAY TWO...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF
DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY DURING DAY TWO...AS
A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 29N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N77W
IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N TO 24N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 27N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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