[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 31N59W TO 25N73W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELL
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES
THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W
05N25W...TO 08N40W...TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 06N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 09N AND 30W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN
30W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HURRICANE SANDRA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 15N93W IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO...BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BETWEEN 83W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...TO 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N96W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
19N99W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 18N92W TO 19N91W AND 21N91W. THIS POSITION IS JUST
INLAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KGHB...KMDJ...KBVE...KDLP...AND KGAO.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N72W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 16N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 26N70W AND 25N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W
26N59W 21N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N NORTHWARD...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
U.S.A. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 29N56W TO 25N57W
TO 24N59W TO 21N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N63W 22N69W...AND 28N66W
26N69W 25N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 80W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN
83W AND 88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
62W AND 83W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 14N NORTHWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 09N61W 06N69W IN VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 08N78W IN
EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 08N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE PRESENT TIME. HISPANIOLA IS IN AN AREA OF A BROAD SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH...FROM 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA...TO 16N73W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS SPAN THE
AREA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE
OBSERVATION FOR 26/0200 UTC SHOWED DRIZZLE AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE OBSERVATION FOR
BARAHONA AT 26/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER AND
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW CURRENTLY IS
MOVING THROUGH/ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH POSITION IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA COAST
ALONG 74W FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH POSITION WILL STAY THE SAME
FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH FOR 2 DAYS...GIVING IT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N73W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. THE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR DAY TWO...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF
DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY DURING DAY TWO...AS
A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 29N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N77W
IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N
TO 24N...AS SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W
AND 46W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N15W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 28N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N24W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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