[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
31N59W SW TO 25N74W IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N AND
W OF 70W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 13-16 FT. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 NHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N24W TO 05N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 15W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A STRONG
1046 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS NEAR 45N69W. THE
SURFACE RIDGING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY RIDGING AS WELL WITH
PRIMARILY NW FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE BASIN. WITH THIS...DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ARE PREVAILING PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PREVAIL E OF 90W. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 16
AND W OF 71W AFFECTING E CUBA AND W AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT IN TWO AREAS: S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-78W
AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 82W-87W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 88W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS EXTENDING ITS AXIS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 88W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1046
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 45N69W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS OUR AREA NEAR 31N59W SW TO 25N74W. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE FRONT FROM 31N55W TO
21N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
43N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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