[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 35N55W SW TO 28N65W IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS
GENERALLY N OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 NHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 07N14W TO 05N24W TO 06N38W TO 05N41W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 28W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A STRONG
1043 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS NEAR 45N70W. THE
SURFACE RIDGING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY RIDGING AS WELL WITH
PRIMARILY NW FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE GULF LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS OCCURRING E OF 90W...INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
RELATIVE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIES TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NE OF HISPANIOLA
BECOMES A SHEAR LINE FROM NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO THE
NORTHERN JAMAICA COAST TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N87W. ASIDE FROM STRONG E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR
LINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADES ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 72W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE ISLAND
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHEAR LINE
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
THE VICINITY OF 28N62W IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF PUERTO
RICO N-NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A PAIR OF
STATIONARY FRONTS...ONE ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
35N55W TO 28N65W...AND THE OTHER ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO
26N60W TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N BETWEEN 53W-65W...AND
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. NORTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ESTABLISHED WITH GALE FORCE NE WINDS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE NE CONUS NEAR 45N70W. GENERALLY STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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