[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N57W SW TO 30N60W TO 22N65W IS GENERATING GALE FORCE
WINDS GENERALLY N OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
NHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W IN
TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 03N29W TO 06N42W TO
05N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN
11W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A STRONG
1041 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION. THE SURFACE
RIDGING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY RIDGING AS WELL WITH PRIMARILY N-
NW FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE GULF LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE BASIN. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING W OF 75W
PROVIDING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY
IS RESULTING IN FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA TO COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. ASIDE FROM
STRONG E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N71W AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W AND
THE SHEAR LINE AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADES ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N71W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH INFLUENCING THE WATERS W OF 55W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N57W TO
30N60W TO 25N62W TO COASTAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N BETWEEN 54W-
68W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. WEST
OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED WITH
GALE FORCE NE WINDS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
GENERALLY STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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