[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W...TO 08N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N18W TO
06N24W TO 05N41W 04N44W AND 01N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE REACHING
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOME COMPARATIVELY MORE INLAND LOCATIONS
IN THAT PART OF SOUTH AMERICA THAT IS FROM 63W EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 64W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO...BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W...BEYOND SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N73W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 23N79W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 29N70W
25N75W...TO 23N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 26N70W 22N75W AND
21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 21N84W TO 20N90W IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60NM
TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W
TO 26N68W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 19N TO
20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 24N68W...TO 20N77W IN CUBA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 70W
AROUND THE AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
PART OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. A RIDGE IS ALONG 15N FROM 70W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA 12N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N67W
AND 08N70W IN VENEZUELA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER VENEZUELA FROM 06N NORTHWARD FROM 66W EASTWARD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VENEZUELA FROM
08N NORTHWARD FROM 63W EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 08N78W IN
EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 07N/08N ALONG 81W IN PANAMA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD...IN PANAMA
AND IN ITS COASTAL WATERS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.76 IN
HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.30 IN BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST
OBSERVATION AT 24/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE BEING OBSERVED IN
BARAHONA AT 24/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
OR SO OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA...TO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL START WITH A CUBA-TO-
JAMAICA-AND BEYOND TO THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH...GIVING HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A 14N63W-TO-15N73W-TO-18N86W RIDGE BY THE END
OF DAY ONE. WESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR DAY TWO. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH WILL BE ALONG 30N62W 28N69W 27N76W. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
WILL BE ALONG 16N/17N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. EXPECT SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE END OF DAY ONE INTO THE FIRST
SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY TWO. ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW TO THE AREA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N53W 14N54W 10N55W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO
17N BETWEEN 40W AND THE 32N53W 16N59W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
29N47W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 29N47W TO 28N54W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N54W TO A 25N56W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TO 18N48W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 31N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N43W TO
28N47W AND 25N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N51W TO
22N55W AND 18N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 28N45W 25N52W 18N55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N41W TO 20N47W AND
10N54W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM THE 31N43W-TO-18N57W STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 25N62W TO 20N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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