[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 07N21W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 06N31W TO 05N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN US AND THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW
ATLANTIC TO THE FL STRAITS AND W CUBA THEN REACHING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO 19N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NW PORTION N OF 24N AND W OF 91W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N
OF THE AREA ACROSS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND STALL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SECTION...IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AS A PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL W OF 78W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE SW OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MAY SPREAD OVER
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA
AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W TO 23N79W. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 63W-72W. TO THE E... A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PREVAILS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N41W TO
25N51W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THAT POINT TO 19N55W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1034
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N23W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH CONVECTION LIKELY WITHIN 200
NM SE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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