[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 06N22W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO 06N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N E OF 32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 23N81W TO
22N88W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N92W. MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE S US IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF BASIN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE THE GULF BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THAT PORTION OF
THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SW N ATLC TO THE N COAST OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER S PANAMA SUPPORTS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE PANAMA COAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...INHIBITING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE COLD FRONT.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN....EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE SW OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MAY SPREAD OVER
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA
TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 25N75W TO THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 23N80W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250
NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 75W. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N40W TO
26N49W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR
20N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM 21N TO 27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH CONVECTION LIKELY WITHIN 200
NM SE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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