[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AS RIDGING
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN A SMALL
AREA WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 23/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W SE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS PRESENTLY N OF 29N E OF
FRONT TO 69W. THE GALE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 23/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
08N13W TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
08N BETWEEN 13W-50W...AND FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 19N93W. A GALE REMAINS NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. THE
LIGHTEST WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR NW GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 30'S ALONG THE NORTH GULF
STATES WHILE SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 60'S. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
...FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 60W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR NW AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE FAR SW AND COSTA
RICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEREAFTER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W SE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
25N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
25N50W TO 20N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 43N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 26N36W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY
FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
13N AND E OF 38W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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