[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO
THE SW GULF. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS ESTABLISHED AS RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 22N W OF 95W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 23/1200 UTC. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N73W SE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N80W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS PRESENTLY N OF 29N
E OF FRONT TO 73W. THE GALE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 23/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO 03N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 13W-
48W...AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 48W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
18N94W. A GALE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
OVER THE FAR NW GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE 40'S ALONG THE NORTH GULF STATES WHILE SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
...FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 60W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR NW AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE FAR SW AND COSTA
RICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEREAFTER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N73W SE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A GALE IS OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 24N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 42N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 26N36W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 13N AND E OF 38W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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