[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
SW TO THE SW GULF. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AS RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 24N W OF
95W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
23/1200UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS
OF NORTH CAROLINA SE TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
28N81W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N16W TO 07N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N28W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 08W-26W...AND FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE TAMPA BAY
REGION SW TO THE SW GULF AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W.
MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
OCCURRING IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND S OF 21N. PORTIONS OF
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO
24N85W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WEST OF
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A BROAD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF NEAR GALE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS SW PORTIONS AS MENTIONED
ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS PREVAILING AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONLY
NOTABLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PANAMA AND AREAS OF GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST. LOOKING
AHEAD...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY MORNING INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS...AND MAINTAINING
FRESH NE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OFF
THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N74W AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 29N78W TO 26N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-78W. AS NOTED ABOVE...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH
23/1200 UTC. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N39W TO 30N39W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
25N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S-SW TO 18N55W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
FRONT...RIDGING PREVAILS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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