[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 30N84W TO 23N90W TO 19N95W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 95W S OF 24N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 15 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GALE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EMERGE OFF THE FL/GA ATLC COASTS THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING
GALE IS FORECAST N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 73W STARTING AT 1800
UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS TO 13 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GALE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 11N16W TO 08N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N30W TO 04N35W TO 02N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 28W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PENINSULA NEAR
29N82W TO 23N90W TO 18N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF
THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
GULF BASIN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FL NEAR
27N81W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH SW WINDS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US AND PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY
NOTABLE CONVECTION IS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N
BETWEEN 79W AND 85W...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER PANAMA. MAINLY FRESH TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS PREVENTING CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW OVER THE W ATLC WATERS TO THE N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION.
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO
31N78W TO 28N80W TO S FL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATES ATLC E OF 70W TO 52W
WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR 31N40W TO 26N45W TO
21N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT TO 15N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE
GA/FL COASTS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST E OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N70W BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM E OF THIS FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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