[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO 25N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
19N96W. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 96W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF NW OF FRONT HAS N WINDS OF 20-30 KT.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MON. SEAS UP TO
16 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GALE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS 18RECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ON SUN EVENING 23/0000 UTC A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO 26N81W. A DEVELOPING GALE IS
FORECAST FOR N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-74W WITH WINDS 30-35 KT AND
SEAS TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS THEREAFTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 08N13W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 06N19W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO
05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN
05W-15W....AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
AT 30N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 25N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N96W. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. THE SE GULF AND S
FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM AIRMASS AND HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA...FROM 08N-12N
BETWEEN 81W-87W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W WITH
UPPER SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN
...AND W CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N80W TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 74W-81W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO 27N42W TO
21N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
44N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 18N18W SUPPORTING CONVECTION LOCALLY OVER W AFRICA. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N72W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. A SMALL GALE AREA IS
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION EXPECT THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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