[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT ON 22/0000 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 21N97W.
A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N TO 25N W OF 96W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF NW OF FRONT HAS N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEAS UP TO 16 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA DURING THAT TIME. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

IN 24 HOURS ON 23/0000 UTC A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO 25N81W. A DEVELOPING GALE IS
FORECAST FOR N OF 30N E OF 72W WITH WINDS 30-35 KT AND SEAS TO
12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS THEREAFTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 08N13W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 06N18W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO
06N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN
06W-17W....AND FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 22W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N89W TO S OF TAMPICO
MEXICO AT 21N97W. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF NW OF FRONT HAS N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N89W TO 21N94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM AIRMASS
AND HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA...FROM 08N-12N
BETWEEN 81W-87W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W WITH
UPPER SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN
...AND W CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 76W-81W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N39W
TO 26N40W TO 20N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 45N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
18N18W SUPPORTING CONVECTION LOCALLY OVER W AFRICA. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE
WINDS. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT
TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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