[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W GULF. THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N98W TO 26N94W TO 29N92W. N WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING
NW OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF
25N AND W OF THE FRONT STARTING 0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SEAS UP TO 15 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA DURING
THAT TIME. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO
07N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
22W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW GULF EARLIER TODAY AND EXTENDS
FROM 23N98W TO 26N94W TO 29N92W AS OF 2100 UTC.  A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 27N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE W GULF S OF
24N. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY E OF
88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
20N96W TO 18N94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A GALE WARNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE
BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION PREVAILING E OF IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ITS AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N61W TO 10N64W. AT
THE SURFACE...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE BASIN
BY THE TRADES. THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-83W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-
74W. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK TRADE
WINDS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
FROM 31N75W TO 28N80W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT FROM 31N38W TO
25N41W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 18N60W. A SURFACE
IS FROM 18N60W TO 12N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
46N26W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF FL
WILL DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE N OF 30N AND E OF 72W MAINLY TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT
BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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