[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 08N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N17W TO
04N25W TO 03N35W 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IS FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 65W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO...BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W...BEYOND SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-22N75W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N71W...TO 22N75W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W 27N70W...TO
23N81W IN CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N64W...TO 27N68W...TO 22N73W IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...21N80W AND 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 21N80W TO 19N90W IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N65W 25N70W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N65W 23N70W 24N68W...TO 21N76W
IN CUBA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 70W
AROUND THE AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE ALSO IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 15N80W AND 15N83W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
PART OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. A RIDGE IS ALONG 15N FROM 70W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA 12N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N67W AND
08N69W IN VENEZUELA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER VENEZUELA FROM 05N NORTHWARD FROM 67W
EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N/09N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 83W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM
78W WESTWARD...IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND IN THEIR COASTAL
WATERS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.76 IN
HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.30 IN BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...PUNTA
CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
OR SO OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA...TO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL START WITH A CUBA-TO-
JAMAICA-AND BEYOND TO THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH...GIVING HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A 14N63W-TO-15N73W-TO-18N86W RIDGE BY THE END
OF DAY ONE. WESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR DAY TWO. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH WILL BE ALONG 30N62W 28N69W 27N76W. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
WILL BE ALONG 16N/17N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. EXPECT SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE END OF DAY ONE INTO THE FIRST
SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY TWO. ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW TO THE AREA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
29N49W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 29N49W TO 29N57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO A 24N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TO 19N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N47W AND 25N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 25N52W TO 22N55W AND 18N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W...AND FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 25N40W TO 22N44W AND
17N48W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM THE 32N42W-TO-18N58W STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N58W TO 20N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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