[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E-SE WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS FORECAST FOR 22/0000 UTC FROM 22N-26N W OF 96W WITH SEAS
TO 12 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TO BEYOND
23/0000 UTC. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO
07N30W TO 07N40W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO
19N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT A COLD FRONT
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS EVENING WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS NW OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
HOWEVER OVER THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N60W
TO 14N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND S
NICARAGUA...FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 60W WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-75W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...AND MORE CONVECTION TO FORM S OF CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 23N46W TO 19N50W TO 16N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF FRONT N OF 14N
BETWEEN 36W-45W. A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 38N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N30W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS STRONGLY
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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