[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E-SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FORECAST ON 22/0000 UTC FROM 23N-25N
W OF 95W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON 23/0600
UTC. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N13W TO
09N20W TO 06N30W TO 07N40W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 21W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-90W. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM
20N96W TO 16N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE BEHIND OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N60W
TO 14N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND S
NICARAGUA...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 60W WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-75W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...AND MORE CONVECTION TO FORM S OF CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 24N44W TO 17N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. FURTHER S...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
41W-50W. A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
38N24W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N30W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N46W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW FRONT TO BE ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WITH CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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