[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210159 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE E-SE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE
AROUND 23/0000 UTC N OF THE FRONT W OF 94W. BY SUNDAY MORNING...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED UP TO 40 KT S OF 25N W OF 95W OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT IN A N SWELL. SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N12W TO
06N26W TO 05N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED
AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THEN BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF WATERS FROM
27N83W TO 25N84W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF 25N. TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N97W TO 17N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF THE
FRONT...AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE FRONT. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
TO FRESH N-NW WINDS ARE W OF THE BOUNDARY FUELING AN ONGOING GAP
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF
80W. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. TO THE S...THE COMBINATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
A 1007 MB SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 10N76W ARE ENHANCING
CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N68W TO 16N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A FEW SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N75W TO 28N80W.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N76W TO 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY W OF 71W. TO THE E...A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W
SUPPORTS A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N52W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 24N47W TO 18N55W. A SHEAR LINE WAS
ANALYZED FROM THIS POINT INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THESE FEATURES N OF
20N BETWEEN 34N45W. A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
13N53W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N53W TO THE LOW TO
08N55W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1036
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 37N19W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING E. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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