[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N48W 07N50W. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO
22N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N63W 14N63W TO 10N62W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N16W TO
03N35W AND 04N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N28W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 10N TO 301N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N51W 15N51W 10N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS PASSING THROUGH IOWA TO KANSAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND WEST TEXAS...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 24N98W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BEYOND LOUISIANA...BETWEEN
91W AND 93W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES...AND SOME COASTAL
STATIONS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 8000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... LBQX...KXIH...
KEMK...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KHHV...KVAF...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KGRY...AND KMDJ.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 10N80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 14N TO A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA...TO PUNTA CANA.  FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL START ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A TROUGH...AND THEN PURE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
START DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY
WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SEND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND BECOME EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST
AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 11N81W...BEYOND 09N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TOISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
76WWESTWAR...AND IN INLAND AREAS FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 22N TO 29N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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