[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N46W TO 07N49W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH A 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 48W-55W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N62W TO 11N62W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH A
SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 61W-66W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
AND EXTENDS TO 06N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 03N28W TO 09N47W...THEN RESUMES TO THE W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N52W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 07N-12N
BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO HAS AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1002
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N97W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 92W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 26N WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION
AND WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 79W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION BETWEEN 70W-80W AFFECTING E CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA.
TO THE S...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15N78W. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES. TO THE
E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT OVER THE SW WHERE WINDS ARE IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RANGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 79W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OVER
HAITI. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE SW.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 22N
BETWEEN 61W-76W. A SHEAR LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 26N66W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 27N43W TO 31N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST NE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS FROM 27N46W TO 31N40W. FARTHER
E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N27W TO 21N28W. THIS TROUGH
IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N AND E OF 27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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