[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N44W TO 07N48W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 44W
AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
40W AND 48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N59W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DRY
AIR. A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IS INDICATED BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
AND EXTENDS TO 06N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
03N30W TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES TO THE W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N51W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 09N61W.
OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR SW MEXICO HAS AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A STRONG
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER TX
THAT IS APPROACHING THE TX GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CURRENTLY...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE TX COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE NW
GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE
NW GULF OVERNIGHT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SPREADING SE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW
HUNDRED NM SE OF THE FRONT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N81W AND IS INTERACTING
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERALLY FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 27N
BETWEEN 66W AND 77W. A BROAD REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING TO THE S OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. THIS IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF
A LINE FROM 27N69W TO 27N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 27N45W TO 26N54W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST NE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS
FROM 31N40W TO 28N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF
THESE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
24N25W TO 19N27W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND
29W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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