[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 05N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N14W TO 02N27W
AND 01N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N49W 11N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS IN THIS AREA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS PASSING THROUGH IOWA TO KANSAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 23N99W IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD BEYOND
LOUISIANA...BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES...AND SOME COASTAL
STATIONS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 9000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...AND
KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGBK...KGHB...
KATP...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KVOA...KBVE...AND K9F2

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 15N80W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
11N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N IN COLOMBIA TO 15N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL START ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A TROUGH...AND THEN PURE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
START DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY
WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SEND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND BECOME EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST
AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 11N81W...ACROSS COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N53W TO
31N58W TO 26N66W TO 22N70W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 30N62W AND BEYOND 32N72W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 31N50W 27N60W
26N67W AND 26N72W. THE FRONT IS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM
26N72W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N46W 26N55W...TO HAITI NEAR
20N70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 25N37W AND 25N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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