[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 19N46W TO 08N47W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER AFRICA ENDING NEAR THE AFRICAN
COAST. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N21W AND CONTINUES THROUGH
02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 22W-
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS W ACROSS S FL TO
25N85W. TO THE W...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE S CENTRAL GULF IS INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
DEEP MOISTURE S OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 26N AND E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 25N97W TO 20N96W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
SE GULF SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF.
WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY
MONDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EMERGE
OFF THE TX COAST LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 78W-86W
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER PANAMA IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S
OF13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 70W-78W
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE N OF THE ISLAND FROM THE 22N68W
TO 20N69W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW SHALLOW TRADE
WIND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N55W TO
25N76W.AT THIS POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING W
ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W. TO THE
E...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
BASIN ENTERING OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N37W
TO 26N47W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 25N57W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO
15N60W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N-22N AND E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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