[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 19N46W TO 09N46W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MODEST POLEWARD
ENHANCEMENT OF MOISTURE. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN
42W AND 50W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA TERMINATES AT THE AFRICAN COAST.
THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N23W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N40W TO
02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN
22W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS S FL TO 25N82W TO 24N89W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF IS INTERACTING WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE S OF THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 26N E OF 91W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N97W TO 19N95W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
COVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TO THE WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE SE
GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...BECOMING S TO SE OVER THE NW GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG ON MONDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF
AND YUCATAN IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 89W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND THE NEARBY E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND FROM
THE 22N68W TO 20N69W THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING SHALLOW TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N58W TO 27N70W TO
25N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR MIAMI.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS INTERACTING WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MOISTURE TO THE S OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO
26N W OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N66W TO THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A
DISSIPATING 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N63W. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N36W TO 27N45W...WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 18N19W TO 14N18W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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