[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N49W TO 19N49W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL
ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N51W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALS THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SAME REGION RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO
06N35W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
29N88W TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N85W IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF
27N E OF 90W THIS EVENING...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORS ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 1030 MB HIGH...MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO
STRONG BREEZE LEVEL ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO A BASE
OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS...A
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
18N BETWEEN 74W-86W...AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W-85W...INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG
09N/10N. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 74W
PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND FROM
20N74W TO 23N72W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 39N47W
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N50W SW TO 25N70W
THEN WESTWARD TO 25N75W. THE FRONT CONTINUES STATIONARY TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 28N W OF 70W AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STEMS NOT ONLY FROM THE FRONT...BUT FROM DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE...RIDGING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR
CONDITIONS. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM 31N37W SW TO 25N50W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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