[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED TO THIS ANALYSIS AFTER EXAMINING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N38W TO 05N38W. A WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 28W-
35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N86W TO THE EPAC 09N86W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15-
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY HIGH MOISTURE...WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING A
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COAST AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N35W THEN
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N41W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N AND W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 19N96W TO 24N95W TO
27N82W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF
THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE W GULF WHILE MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULF IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH
SUPPORTS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 22N AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND
WEAKEN. FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY N OF
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N87W TO 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF 19N AND W OF 83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA SUPPORTING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALSO. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-83W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AS THE MOIST AND DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N80W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. TO THE E...A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N71W TO 26N66W
THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 26N54W TO
31N44W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 18N59W TO 22N55W. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH CONVECTION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FL AND BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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