[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N39W TO 13N38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND NW AFRICA.
THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N22W TO 05N30W TO 08N39W TO 05N52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-16N BETWEEN 18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE CONUS AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N94W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N96W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM GALVESTON
BAY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W DUE LARGELY IN PART
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH
TEXAS NEAR 27N99W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. EVEN WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN...MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM
19N-23N. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF 80W THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 80W
PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A FEW PASSING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-
80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LARGELY CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 25N-28N W OF 77W.
OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N57W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT 1017 MB IS
ANALYZED NEAR 27N68W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER...
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N40W EXTENDING SW TO 25N54W THEN WESTWARD TO 25N60W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY
IS ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 18N61W TO 21N57W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 52W-62W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N26W TO 22N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net