[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N84 TO 09N84W...MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY HIGH MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COAST AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
05N20W TO 07N28W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 08N37W TO 06N44W TO 04N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 16W AND 32W...AND WITHIN
50 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL NEAR SAINT PETERSBURG AT 28N83W TO
26N90W TO 23N96W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
21N98W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. MAINLY
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NE TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
TRANSITION THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK TO A COLD FRONT. THE ENTIRE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SE OVER GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EXTEND FROM THE FL KEYS TO THE SW GULF BY SAT NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. FRESH E TO NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N87W TO 16N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. A
TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. MAINLY
MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
UNDER A MOIST AND DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N47W TO
27N55W TO 26N65W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
25N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT W OF
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W
AND 49W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT ARE VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC. ONE TROUGH HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 22N68W. THE OTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N54W TO 18N59W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED W OF SPAIN DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM S FL TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF
THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS N TO 31N W OF 75W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net