[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

KATE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS
CENTER AT 12/0900 UTC IS NEAR 40.7N 50.8W. KATE IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...OR 60 DEGREES...23 KNOTS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS STRONG
THAT WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA 6 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED IN
ORDER TO BE ALONG 88W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THIS POSITION AGREES
WITH THE MOST-CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 70W
WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13.5N
TO 15.5N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 75W WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N28W 08N35W 05N37W AND
04N40W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N SOUTHWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BECOME SO STRETCHED
OUT AND DISTORTED THAT IT REALLY IS NOT DISTINGUISHABLE ANY
MORE. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT FEATURE HAS REACHED THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W AND 28N74W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 28N74W...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 31N60W TO 29N66W TO 27N74W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM
THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST NEAR 19N96W.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES THAT CURRENTLY ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 63W
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W.

NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 100 MB TO 250 MB IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS WIND REGIME IS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CURRENT
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS
MORE RELATED TO AN AREA OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...IS MERGING WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY FORMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT CONTINUES THERE FOR THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS
OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS NEAR
27N70W. IT ENDS MOVING TO 27N52W BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 24N/25N.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
85W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31 IN
BERMUDA...0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 26N33W TO 16N34W...AND 08N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N29W 27N30W AND
23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N66W 24N67W 20N68W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W
AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 29N59W 26N62W 23N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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