[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE AT 12/0300 UTC IS NEAR 40.1N
52.3 WEST. KATE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...OR 65 DEGREES...
36 KNOTS. NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN A
SMALL AREA FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE
VENEZUELA BORDER WITH COLOMBIA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN
NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IN THE
AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 70W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
FROM 80W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 75W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INLAND
AND FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N23W 08N30W AND 05N40W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N40W TO 03N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09.5N TO 12.5N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 13N FROM 36W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BECOME STRETCHED OUT
AND DISTORTED. THE PART THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HAS RACED EASTWARD TO 58W FROM 30N NORTHWARD. A TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 27N70W TO 23N77W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 21N85W IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 23N86W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 23N86W TO 20N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN
64W AND 80W.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W...
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 19N96W.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 250
MB TO 500 MB...COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 100 MB TO 250 MB COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W
AND THE CUBA-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN SANTO DOMINGO...AFTER SIX STRAIGHT
OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME FRAME EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACED BY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 48 HOURS WILL
CONSIST OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 18N60W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 16N81W. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 25N68W DURING DAY TWO. EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TWO-DAY FORECAST.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
24N/25N.



THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31 IN
BERMUDA...0.06 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA
IN HONDURAS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 26N33W TO 16N34W...AND 08N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N29W 27N30W AND
23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 36W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N66W 23N67W 21N68W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W
AND 66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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