[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N76W TO 08N76W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS
WAVE CORRESPONDS TO A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST IS
PRODUCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
WAVE...INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE WAVE WILL BE
MOVING INTO A MORE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE RIDGE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR
09N91W. PLEASE REFER TO THE E PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N27W TO 06N38W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 10W AND
34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FL TO THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N86W. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING AND WILL
NOT BE ON SUBSEQUENT ANALYSIS MAPS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE N GULF NEAR 29N91W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHER SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF
NEAR VERA CRUZ ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE MEXICO
COAST. FRESH NW WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL
RESIDE FROM N FL TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO BY 1200 UTC FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT FROM THE FL KEYS TO THE SW GULF ON
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN
THE PRESENCE OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W
AND 86W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOULD ACT TO FURTHER
ENHANCE CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N60W TO 29N65W
TO 27N74W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR W
PALM BEACH FL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDING FROM
28N60W TO 23N67W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
31N31W TO 23N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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