[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 76.0W AT 10/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 60 NM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MOVING NNW AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 13N46W TO 04N47W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB
TROUGHING ALOFT WITH SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N67W TO 10N66W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF MAXIMUM DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 66W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N84W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE
IN THE ENVIRONMENT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 79W-89W TO INCLUDE
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
09N22W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N27W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 13W-
20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 07N-12N
BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA NEAR 30N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO TO 28N85W TO 25N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 22N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
18N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONTS
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WHERE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT TO BE OVER S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
IN ADDITION...20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR 15N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY
E OF 71W. THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 66W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S. KATE IS OVER THE THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 33N BETWEEN 50W-70W.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N43W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N30W TO 24N30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N68W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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