[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE IS NEAR 27.2N 76.0W AT 10/0300
UTC...OR ABOUT 152 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
EAST OF TROPICAL STORM KATE FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N71W AND 12N66W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N81W 12N81W 09N76W 06N75W

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
09N22W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N27W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA...
THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A WARM
FRONT THAT IS IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N69W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST
PART OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N81W 12N81W 09N76W 06N75W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO
16N71W AND 12N66W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N31W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 14N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 23N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN
27W AND 32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net