[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.9N 75.7W AT 09/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 25 NM ENE OF ELEUTHERA AND ABOUT 120 NM SE OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 72W-76W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N42W TO 14N44W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WITH
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 39W-45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N64W TO 19N65W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 60W-67W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 20N82W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING
THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 16N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
09N18W TO 05N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N29W TO 03N34W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING GENERALLY ALONG 88W. THE TROUGHING
ALOFT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N87W WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N86W TO 24N90W THEN
CONTINUES SW STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR
19N96W. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 82W
AND THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO NEAR
24N99W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE E-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAK AS IT
MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOW INFLUENCE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ONE CENTERED NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W AND THE
OTHER CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W. BOTH
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE PROVIDING AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
AIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO 10N58W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES
S OF 16N. THE WESTERN-MOST UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 82W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-86W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 65W IS PROVIDING
FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED S OF 19N INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM KATE REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NW. TO THE NW
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A 1017 MB LOW
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS S-SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA THEN INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AT 1013 MB CENTERED SOUTH
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 31N...AND W OF 81W. FARTHER EAST...A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 34N50W W-SW TO 32N63W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 32N75W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A 1026 MB
HIGH IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N56W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLC WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC...AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W
THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N21W SW TO 28N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 23N31W
TO THE FRONT NEAR 30N27W. THE BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE...COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP A WEAK LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 28N32W BY TUESDAY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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