[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091155 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

AMENDED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON T.D. TWELVE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 1200 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS LOCATED NEAR
23.9N/75.0W...MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAHAMAS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
EXTENDING FROM 15N41W TO 06N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING AT 700 MB
BETWEEN 38W-44W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS
TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N62W TO 11N63W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 60W-66W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 59W-70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N81W TO 09N82W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WITH A
WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 06N25W TO 05N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM
THAT POINT TO 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-
11N AND E OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N88W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO
24N92W THEN AS A STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT TO 19N96W.  A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 29N86W TO 25N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURES WITH A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION
ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D TWELVE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 69W-71W AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 10N ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF T.D. TWELVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS THE T.D. MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
E BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.D. TWELVE IS OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1032 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N18W. TO THE E...A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N19W TO 23N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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