[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 07N TO 15N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N47W 14N49W 10N50W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...
AND FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE
SECTION ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 07N20W 07N27W AND 06N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N36W TO 06N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 08W AND
12W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 03N TO 11N
FROM 24N EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...INCLUDING
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT IS RELATED
TO THE 15N90W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N83W 24N90W 22N94W
18N95W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM MEXICO
ALONG 100W...INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.A...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 22N NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 25N90W 23N92W. THE TROUGH
REMAINS FROM THE WARM FRONT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FROM 24
HOURS AGO. THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N90W IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN
80W AND 100W...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...FROM 15N
TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND FROM 18N TO
20N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 17N85.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W...IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N
NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N63W. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 14N TO 21N...IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
58W AND 66W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL
START ALONG 75W/76W...AND IT WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO 85W/86W BY
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
STILL IS FORECAST TO CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL BE PRESENT BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL
FIND ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A COLD
FRONT...THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES
THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N54W AND 32N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N40W 27N47W 26N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 30N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N36W 26N43W 25N56W 30N70W 30N80W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM
22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 25N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 27N22W 23N33W AND
23N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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