[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N31W 11N30W 07N29W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 07N TO 15N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N83W 16N83W
09N81W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WESTERN HONDURAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE SECTION ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 08N18W 07N30W AND 06N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N36W TO 06N41W AND 07N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN
08W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
22W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 96W...INCLUDING
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
91.5W AND 92.5W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF 29N83W 26N90W 19N93W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM MEXICO
ALONG 100W...INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.A...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 22N NORTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N88W IN WESTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN
80W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 72W
WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N63W. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N
TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 15N TO 21N...IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS OF 05/0300 UTC. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AT 05/0000 UTC IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOLLOW A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS...IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL
START ALONG 75W/76W...AND IT WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO 85W/86W BY
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
STILL IS FORECAST TO CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL BE PRESENT BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL
FIND ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A COLD
FRONT...THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO 29N56W AND 32N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N40W 28N47W 26N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 30N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N36W 26N43W 25N56W 30N70W 30N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N17W...TO 23N32W 23N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net