[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 14N28W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 25W-32W
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE NE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 21N18W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 22N82W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE ALONG WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS IS PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 77W-83W...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-24N
BETWEEN 72W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
06N28W TO 07N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 11N51W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 10W-14W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 31W-
45W...AND FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N101W AND AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THE SAME AS A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
DELMARVA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SW GULF.
HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN IS THE SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF
87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS THAT EXTENDS AN
AXIS NORTHWARD OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W...
FAVORABLE LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 73W. A PORTION OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
NOTED ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WEST OF
JAMAICA IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS MOST OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS LOCATED TO THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. FAIR SKIES AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT SLIDES WESTWARD AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE ATLC IS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
AZORES NEAR 37N25W TO 30N55W TO 32N65W...THEN AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COAST
NEAR 31N81W. THE BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED LARGELY BY A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLC. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 31N40W TO
27N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN ATLC WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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