[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N31W TO 06N32W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N49W TO 10N50W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE. AN INVERTED-V
LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N86W TO 11N86W...MOVING W
AT 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N86W. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AREA IS FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 80W-90W...AND FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 06N21W TO 05N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS
LAST POINT TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 09W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S
OF 24N86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS SE RETURN FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR
18N91W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
N GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER
TO THE WESTERN GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS W OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N63W TO 15N65W MOVING
W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 60W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA
...N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S
MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 15N63W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION MOSTLY W OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
31N37W TO 27N50W TO 31N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
SE OF FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N31W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N14W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W. A LARGE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 20W-70W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DIP FURTHER
SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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