[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SW
NORTH ATLC 700 MB RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N69W AND A RELATIVELY
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 70W. DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO THE LAST 24 HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE HAS INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-
20N BETWEEN 65W-74W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N24W TO 07N36W TO 10N50W TO 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 15W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 37W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE SE CONUS THAT
SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH
THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
24N90W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LIES TO THE WEST ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. THEREAFTER
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE NICARAGUA THAT
EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO BEYOND 23N78W. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...FAVORABLE LIFTING DYNAMICS
ARE SUPPORTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
SCATTERED TSTMS W OF 75W. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED ON A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W TO
20N83W. A PORTION OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. TO THE EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG
70W THAT IS PROVIDING A BROAD AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER THE ISLAND.  THE DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED ALONG 70W IS PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER A SLIGHT
PROBABILITY REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER A PORTION OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE TROUGHING IS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTH OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED S OF
21N ALONG 70W IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W. THE
RIDGING STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 29N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net