[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N67W TO 10N69W...MOVING W 10 KT. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 65W-71W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 07N24W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS
LAST POINT TO 07N35W TO 09N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE W SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 09N50 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 15W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N
BETWEEN 27W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER THE SE
GULF. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF DUE TO SE RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 20N. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
82W-85W TO INCLUDE E HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HONDURAS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N55W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN BETWEEN OVER N COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER ALL OF
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W WITH
FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W ALSO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
21N27W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTH AND EXTEND FROM 32N38W
TO 31N60W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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