[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N64W 16N65W 11N66W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 08N22W AND 07N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
07N28W TO 07N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN
28W AND 31W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH OF 24N22W 17N30W 14N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W 26N30W 19N33W AND
12N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM
89W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED
TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CURRENT
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 16N81W.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N84W IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...TO 26N87W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N90W
TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SAME GEORGIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE
WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W AND TO
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
90W AND 100W EVEN IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W FROM 15N TO 20N.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W WESTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
LAKE MARACAIBO TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
70W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N79W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
SPAN HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO WITH HISPANIOLA FINDING ITSELF AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL REACH THE AREA DURING DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N BETWEEN 75W AND BEYOND 82W INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.82 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.08N IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N67W 24N70W 22N71W NEAR GRAND TURK
ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W 23N71W 20N74W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 08N TO 16N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N10W 29N21W
30N50W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N66W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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