[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N63W 16N64W 11N65W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 08N20W AND 07N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N29W
TO 07N34W 09N40W AND 08N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 09N TO 14N...FROM 08.5N TO
09.5N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND
31W...AND FROM 07.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 24N22W 17N30W
14N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W 26N30W 19N33W AND 12N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM
89W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED
TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CURRENT
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 16N79W.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N86W TO 26N87W TO 23N90W AND 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST
PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
GUATEMALA.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N79W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
73W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N72W IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...EVEN AT THE NORTHERN EDGES OF LAKE MARACAIBO...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N73.5W AND 12N76W IN THE COLOMBIA
COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 70W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N79W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
SPAN HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO WITH HISPANIOLA FINDING ITSELF AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL REACH THE AREA DURING DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 09N81W...
BEYOND 09N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.82 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.08N IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 24N70W 22N71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W
AND 77W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 44W/45W FROM 09N TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N/30N BETWEEN
MOROCCO AND 50W...CONTINUING TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N67W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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