[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N63W TO 20N61W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-ATLC 700 MB RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 28N51W. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS AROUND 02/1344 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-66W...
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
07N23W TO 07N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 10N42W TO 08N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 19W-40W. ALONG WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FEATURES...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N31W IS PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N86W
SW TO 30N91W. THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N87W TO 22N90W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-95W IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LIES TO THE WEST ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W THAT STRETCHES NORTHWARD TO EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SW TO THE SW GULF WATERS AND
THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THEREAFTER GENTLE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
NE TO BEYOND 23N73W AND SW TO BEYOND 12N86W. NW OF THE AXIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN NE FLOW. WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS...MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS
INTRODUCING MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN STRENGTHEN PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE
ISLAND NEAR 17N78W SLOW TO MOVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE
APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 30N62W WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 30N TO
74W THEN W-SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W.
FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGING AND SUPPORTS A 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOWEVER...TROUGHING
ORIGINATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INFLUENCE
THE WATERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 67W-78W. THE TROUGHING IS INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
21N70W TO 26N67W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 66W-78W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 30N32W AND THE
OTHER NEAR 30N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net